The war has strengthened Iran's regional position, destabilised the Gulf and exposed the limits of American power - with serious consequences for India.
Sir, I agree with every word of this write-up. Neither Trump nor the Gulf states can easily make a U-turn now. Iran’s endurance, backed by China and Russia, coupled with rapidly shifting American public opinion, will make the road ahead increasingly difficult. If American protection becomes uncertain, the Gulf states will have to seek new security guarantees. China may ultimately be the only power with enough leverage to rein in Iran. Interesting—and potentially defining—times ahead.
Thank you. The Gulf states will certainly seek to diversify their security relationships, but replacing the United States with China will be neither immediate nor straightforward. Beijing has considerable economic leverage with both Iran and the Gulf, but limited appetite for assuming the military and political burdens of regional security. A more fluid order is likely, with the Gulf states hedging among Washington, Beijing, Ankara, Islamabad and Tehran. India will therefore need sustained engagement with all sides.
Sir, I agree with every word of this write-up. Neither Trump nor the Gulf states can easily make a U-turn now. Iran’s endurance, backed by China and Russia, coupled with rapidly shifting American public opinion, will make the road ahead increasingly difficult. If American protection becomes uncertain, the Gulf states will have to seek new security guarantees. China may ultimately be the only power with enough leverage to rein in Iran. Interesting—and potentially defining—times ahead.
Thank you. The Gulf states will certainly seek to diversify their security relationships, but replacing the United States with China will be neither immediate nor straightforward. Beijing has considerable economic leverage with both Iran and the Gulf, but limited appetite for assuming the military and political burdens of regional security. A more fluid order is likely, with the Gulf states hedging among Washington, Beijing, Ankara, Islamabad and Tehran. India will therefore need sustained engagement with all sides.